Introduction
I’m a techno-optimist, but techno-optimism should be practiced with both empathy and care. And I’m a believer in what is possible if you do it that way.
A Word of Warning
First, I’m going to give you a word of warning. Experts extrapolate the past. They prevent radical progress because they don’t think nonlinearly. They don’t think of the improbable.
The Importance of Improbables
I personally believe only the improbables are important. We just don’t know which improbable is important.
The Role of Entrepreneurs
Entrepreneurs, on the other hand, with a passion for a vision, they dream the dreams, and then are foolish enough, and we need more foolishness, to try and make those implausible dreams come true. That’s what entrepreneurship is about, something I’ve loved my whole life.
Innovation and Social Impact
In the 40 years, I’ve been doing innovation and innovation only. This may surprise people. I can’t think of a single large social impact change that was driven by an expert in the field, possibly with the exception of biotechnology, that’s driven by an expert, by a large institution, a large non-founder-led company.
Examples of Transformative Innovations
Think about it. In 40 years, not one example. Whether you look at SpaceX, or electric cars or Uber, not one example. The earliest one I could think of was credit cards in the early 70s, when Bank of America put credit on plastic.
Envisioning a Plausible World
So what is this plausible world? I’ll go through a dozen scenarios that I believe most experts will pooh-pooh.
The Democratization of Expertise
Most expertise enabled by AI will be free. I’m most excited that every human being on the planet can have, 24/7, a free doctor, primary care in a very expansive way.
Free Labor and Robotics
Most labor will also be free. I can imagine a billion bipedal robots doing more work than all of human labor does today, freeing humans from the servitude of some of the jobs.
The Shift in Computing and Programming
Programming will be near free also. And though we think of computers as pervasive today, I think they’ll be much more prevalent, much more pervasive and expansive.
Creativity and AI
Five years ago, when I first spoke at a conference in Toronto on the role AI will play in music generation, I was met with skepticism. Whether it’s AI alone or AI plus humans, the level of creativity in entertainment and design will dramatically go up.
Medicine Transformed
Medicine is my other favorite. We have pretty good medicine today, but we have the practice of medicine, and it will change to the science of medicine.
Innovations in Food and Fertilizer
Food. We will have new types of proteins, which we need, and new kinds of fertilizer essential to agriculture.
Transforming Urban Transit
Oh, my favorite. Experts completely disagree with me when I say this. We can, in the next 25 years, replace most cars in most cities.
Advances in Energy
And we fret a lot about power, and we think solar and wind are the solution. They’re great solutions I’ve been advocating for the last 20 years. But fusion power will replace most coal and natural gas power plants today.
Abundant Resources and Climate Solutions
Doomers say we don’t have enough resources like lithium and copper. In fact, I say we haven’t started to look.
Entrepreneurs Changing the World
There will be carbon solutions for everything. Entrepreneurs are working on this. There’s only a dozen major emitter categories, and I wrote a blog on it about two years ago.
Conclusion
All we need is a few entrepreneurs who will imagine the impossible, dream the dreams, and then be foolish enough to make them come true. There’s lots of reasons this won’t happen, but I won’t delve into them. But I do think a really abundant world is possible. It only takes a few motivated, impassioned entrepreneurs to make it happen.
